I'm a little late on this one, but I'm bored and nobody's posting new ones.
I agree on your specific examples, but disagree on the concept. On the HMI/software end, which is what I'm more familiar with, there has been general consensus on the direction for nearly a decade among futurists, magazine writers, and knowledgable end users. There's also a narrowing gap of what vendors are providing. Of course you can't accurately predict
which company will win. That has less to do with defining "next generation" and more to do with: implementation, management, support, pricing, marketing, etc, etc. You can easily say that Toyota is the leader in "next generation" environmentally safe vehicles with it's hybrid development without trying to predict their FY12 profit margins.
Similarly, with HMI software you can look at where the technology is going. Generally everybody wants the same capability or more as your old "stand alone" installs in a simple lightweight version - including all the traditionally "separate" packages (batching, alarming, historian, reporting, discreet versus continuous process). Very few will argue against the convergence of standard IT/commercial capabilities - dynamic reporting, enterprise integration, etc, etc. All of this leads to modern computing technologies that have been missing with industrial software. Web services, Service oriented architecture, XML (like the new focus for an OOXML office document format), IT management, standards based security (SSL, encryption, Active Directory, Kerberos, etc, etc). End users have an insatiable appetite for increased capabilities. More data points, more historical data, webcam integration, better graphics, etc.
Can you predict who's going to win? Probably not.
I think
Inductive Automation is on the right track with a purely web based client, an "IT friendly" SQL database centric architecture, and a fixed pricing model.
Iconics is aligning closely with Microsoft to leverage powerful new computer (gaming) hardware to deliver advanced 3D graphics. Their newest version runs on 64 bit Windows and utilzes DirectX 10. I question the necessity for this, but think it's cool on my geek-o-meter. They also have Vista gadgets.
Wonderware solutions (InTouch 10) "helps you achieve a new level of operational excellence". They have a new "Breakthrough Experiene" drawing that has really cool graphic art on the web site. I haven't been able to figure out what the new version really does besides support Vista. They're also in pretty close with Microsoft, which may be the way of the future.
It's worth mentioning that Rockwell and Wonderware have been active in the development and fielding of "next generation technology" - specifically OPC-UA. While I don't like the fact that they use their own proprietary implementations, FactoryTalk and Archestra, respectively, these
are founded on the above mentioned technologies, and are the basis of what
will become the industry standard - OPC Unified Architecture.
What are Citect and GE up to these days? I have no idea. Hopefully GE's working on consoladating products instead of buying out more. I've heard Citect is slipping recently, but haven't confirmed it. It's apparent that you guys don't like ABB - I've never used them.
Steve Etter said:
IMHO, efforts to effectively "define the next generation" are no more likely to be successful at that goal than would be consulting a crystal ball. None of us know what the "next generation" of process control or information technology capabilities will be, what will ultimately be successful, or who will drive/lead that success. If any of us did, you can be sure we would be heavily leveraging our own portfolios for the inevitable wealth that would follow...hence I work for a living.