Bayesian Conspiracy Theory

It's early in the morning here and sleep eludes me. Lets try this little thought experiment.

Let me pretend that 2% of people who open up an electrical cabinet should not have done so, either they are unqualified or untrained or undertheinfluence. Lets call them 'idiots'. Furthermore I will assume that everytime one of these idiots opens a non IP2X Finger Safe cabinet they run a 5% risk of killing themselves. By contrast all us 'saints' who are fully trained, qualified and alert at all times run only a 0.5% risk of killing ourselves in the same cabinet. For every say 100,000 visits made to an open cabinet:

2000 will be by the idiots resulting in 100 stiffs.

98,000 will be made by the saints resulting in 490 official visits to wives who have just begun to suspect that they are now widows.

A total of 590 funerals and a lot of paperwork.

On the other hand if the same cabinet visits were made to IP2X standard cabinets and the idiots now improved their chances by a factor of two to 2.5% (well they ARE idiots and assumed capable of anything) and the saints had their risk cut by a factor of 10 to 0.05%, the numbers now are:

2000 visits by idiots resulting in 50 greasy smuts hanging from the ceiling.

98,000 visits by saints resulting in 49 nasty surprises for the next guy who happens by.

Total of only 99 lots of paperwork and a downturn in the local funeral industry.

Furthermore as much as the idiots are responsible for their own fate, in the first non-IP2X case any given fatality had a (490/590*100)= 83% chance of being a 'saint' (well if he wasn't before he maybe he is now); and for the IP2X cabinet the same number drops to 49%.

Sure these are just numbers...but whichever way you want to cut it, we are all out there day in, day out exposing ourselves to risk. How do YOU want to stack the odds?

Now Phillip , Are you saying that it is better to have loony proof cabinets , or ones with the giblets hanging out ?
Would you please provide that calculation in a spreadsheet for me , or better still , write an S7 FB , then I could have my cabinets calculate the most probable time to dial up the mortuary using teleservices based on the number of times the door switch is operated.

personally, I've always said that 'we' work with the most dangerous thing on the planet...you can't see it, hear it, smell it, or feel it until it's too late. As for the idiots, euthanisation is an option! Maybe there should be an I.Q. test BEFORE procreation is allowed?

stasis said:

personally, I've always said that 'we' work with the most dangerous thing on the planet...you can't see it, hear it, smell it, or feel it until it's too late. As for the idiots, euthanisation is an option! Maybe there should be an I.Q. test BEFORE procreation is allowed?

Click to expand...

The most dangerous thing I work with is ........other people
Saying that though , you are right Mr Stasis - I can't see them , hear them , can smell some of them , and you definitely don't want to feel them - most of the time they are asleep in the control room.
Bless them .

Hmmm...So let's say if the idiots and pros have the same exposure frequency (opens the cabnets the same number if times in a given year), will the idiots be able to reduce their odds of getting snuffed to equal that of the pros, if the idiots spend less time in the cabinet for each visit?

Doesn't work quite as calculated , the "pro" tends to do an exponential amount of work to the "loon" based on time at site - therefore we have to differentiate work done with respect to "loons" and time on site . My initial findings are that whilst more "loons" get fried as a function of stupidity , the ratio of "loons" fried : "pros" fried is actually reduced due to the tea room factor.

Good Grief!!!!!!!

So the safest policy for the idiots (as pushed by the current administration) is abstinence (i.e. staying out of the control cabinets). But, of course, being idiots they completely ignore that and have at it. The REALLY dumb and unlucky ones quickly join their equals in the hearafter and get less chance to procreate. The lucky ones do get the chance. What about the knowledgable techs? They're so busy trying to clear up the mess that the idiots made in the cabinets they have no chance to pass on their genes. So we approach a world more and more populated by lucky idiots.

Want to look at some real numbers for the US?

For 1985, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 3,750 work-related deaths occurred in private sector workplaces employing 11 workers or more. Nine percent of the fatalities, or around 338 deaths, were the direct result of electrocutions at work.

These are actual incidents recoded by NIOSH:
http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/elecases.html

Had lots of trouble with damage to panels some time ago , caused by the wolf being at the door - didn't matter what we did , they would severely damage the paint finish , in some cases actually entering the panel and removing terminal guards and busbar covers , leaving the panel in a potentially dangerous condition .
We employed metalurgists who eventually found the solution :- we now build all of our enclosures from non-ferocious metal - that keeps the blighters out.

rsdoran said:

Want to look at some real numbers for the US?

For 1985, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 3,750 work-related deaths occurred in private sector workplaces employing 11 workers or more. Nine percent of the fatalities, or around 338 deaths, were the direct result of electrocutions at work.

These are actual incidents recoded by NIOSH:
http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/elecases.html

Click to expand...

I suppose the answer is to employ less than 11 workers.
"result of electrocutions at work" or "electricians" at work - sometimes the difference is only spelling.

tongue in cheek...non ferocious metals...faux q....geez what is going on these days?

Humor

1. First of all, pick the number of times a week that you would like to have a pint. (try for more than once)


2. Multiply this number by 2 (Just to be honest)


3. Add 5. (for Sunday)


4. Multiply it by 50 I'll wait while you get the calculator................


5. If you have already had your birthday this year add 1755.... If you haven't, add 1754 ...


6. Now subtract the four-digit year that you were born.


You should have a three-digit number


The first digit of this was your original number
(i.e., how many times you want to have a pint week).

The next two numbers are .......


YOUR AGE! ~ (Oh YES, it IS!!!!! )

First of all, pick the number of times a week that you would like to have a pint.

Click to expand...

First of all who wastes their time with a pint?
Number of times per week?
A 3 digit number?