100% completely OT - Trailing stops

Hey Tim, before I respond I just thought I'd say while we may not agree on things I always learn something from these discussions and hope you and others realize nothing I'm saying should be taken personally.

Now, you said:
TimothyMoulder said:
...if I did wind up on a rooftop for any reason, I'd still hope someone would happen by with a boat. So would you.
You are quite correct, I sure would hope that if I wound up on a rooftop that someone would come by and help me out. At the same time if someone told be that there was a very good chance that I would wind up on a rooftop or facing a wall of water (or fire) a few days (or hours) before I'd make sure to leave the area. Also if I did wind up on that rooftop I wouldn't just hang out and wait for help to arrive if I was still able bodied (true, not all were, but lots of them were).

TimothyMoulder said:
Then the storm took a sudden veer eastward and clobbered our southen neighbors. They didn't evacuate - it wasn't supposed to hit them. Alot of people died.

When dealing with these things, it's a complete ****-shoot. Tampa was less than 24 hours from promised destruction before we were spared. Alot of Orleanians were hoping for the same, but they were wrong.
This is very different than Katrina and New Orleans. There is a difference between being unlucky when the "experts" are wrong about a storm track and being unlucky when they're right. Believe it or not the "experts" are enough correct in their predictions a large enough percentage of the time that I for one will listen to them. Its not a perfect science, but to use an analogy my boss likes to use; on a foggy night would you prefer to drive your car with your eyes open or closed? Eyes open may not be much better than eyes closed, but why would you choose to not take every little advantage available to you when your life is on the line?

TimothyMoulder said:
The armed forces. We had military rescue to the tidal wave victims in Sri Lanka quicker than we were picking survivors off rooftops in New Orleans. How asinine is that?
What was our federal government's response time from the moment the tidal wave hit Sri Lanka to the time our people started active rescues on the ground there? What was it for Katrina? I think that you will find that we got to New Orleans a bit faster than we got to Sri Lanka. As I recall even the media didn't say federal aid wasn't present in New Orleans, their complaint was that there wasn't enough of it.

As for comments about the stock market I'll just throw this out:
The public stock market already contains the controls and regulations that have been talked about here and Lancie1 is correct, it is not a zero-sum game.
 
It has never been part of the job description of the President to prevent natural disasters, or even to provide help in case of natural disasters.

Somewhere along the line, some politician decided it would look good to set up a national rescue squad. It is called FEMA and it has never worked, has cost billions, and serves only to create delusions and disappointments.

There is no constitutional guarantee or rights that protect US citizens from natural disasters, or guarantees that you will be helped after the disaster. Sure, you may hope that there will be some help coming, but it may not be when you want it or what is needed. Government agencies are made up of government employees.

Government employees have no motivation to increase profits, no reason to do better this time than last, no reason to show up for work sober and drug-free, no reason to cut costs and promote efficiency, no reason to help you if it interferes with the coffee break or puts their own self to any trouble.

During the Katrina clean-up, FEMA rented TWO luxury cruise ships and parked them off the coast. I am still looking for ONE disaster victim that got onboard one of those ships. Who do you reckon was living it up on those ships while most of the victims were going into shelters and tents?

When I reported to work for FEMA after a tornado, I brought along some pencils and a clipboard. The FEMA manager was upset because I brought my own stuff. I said I thought I might need it to make notes in the field. He said "Come with me. I want to show you our office supplies". He carried me out to a warehouse full of new office supplies. He said that FEMA always orders new stuff for every job, and not to be bringing in anything from home. Oh, yes, after we finished, we were asked to take as much as we could carry of the leftover supplies home with us. They said they didn't want to have to pay for storage.
 
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First things first. I trade short term, not the same as trading short, but that’s a different story. The trailing stop is not as easy to master as it seems. The trader has to decide how much, or where to put the stop. While it certainly can save money, it can cost lots of money as well. IT AIN"T THAT SIMPLE. Nor is it a curse to society. Trading successfully short term requires a lot of work. I only have a small amount at risk, and have done ok, but there is a lot to short term (not day) trading. The market is a trading place. Just like an auction. If you go to an auction, and pay $10.00 for a comic book, then turn around and sell it for $50.00 the next day, you made a profit. Stocks are the same way.



If you expect long term investment in companies, then companies should place long term investments in people. Nuff said.



Now for Katrina, Ivan, Fredrick, Hugo, Allen, David, and several others I can't even remember now. Yes, I’ve been through all of these storms. I have lost property in these storms. I have insurance, and I have received help from the Red Cross, FEMA and others. I am grateful, and have made a personal commitment to help others in need.



However, If you live on the Gulf Coast, New Orleans included, and a storm is coming, and you know it, you batten down and get the he@@ out. I expect a storm to come through from time to time. If I choose to stay, and put my family and myself at risk, it’s my own fault. I do not expect the government or anyone else to bail my butt out. I have insurance to cover some of the losses but expect that it will not cover all of my losses. It sure beats earth quakes.



For South MS, AL, LA, where the surge came in, it is a different matter all together. These people lost most everything, and they did leave. I have family, and friends who lost homes, businesses, and untold stress during Katrina/Ivan. (They really were a 1 - 2 punch.) These people are not standing on rooftops screaming "Someone needs to help me." In all too many cases, they have no rooftops to stand on.



The real tragedy in New Orleans, if you must, was a lack of levy maintenance. Whoever was responsible for the levy system is responsible for this mess. Personally I am sick of hearing about New Orleans, and a bunch of idiots leading a bunch more idiots into their idiotic mess. It was not FEMA. FEMA did make mistakes, but they recovered quickly. A certain Mayor, and Governor, should be held responsible for first line failures. The aftermath was nothing more than tribal warfare in the 21'st century. The ring leader of the aggressive clan calls himself Mayor.



Repeat after me: I am responsible for my own success, and failure. Not the government and certainly not the people I surround myself with. My choices are my choices. If I choose to build on shifting sand, it’s my own fault.

 
I have lost property in these storms. I have insurance...

Definitions 101 (What they should have told you before you bought your mortgage)

Home-Owners Insurance: The name of a type of insurance that FIRST protects the lender (the bank or mortgage company that put up the money) from losses, and secondly the homeowner. Ocassionally, if there is any money left after paying for clean-up and debris removal, then the homeowner recovers enough to pay for the lot that his house used to sit on. Because the lender is not in the real estate business and does not really want to own land, and the land was not insurable anyway, the lender lets the former homeowner have it back, after recovering the full amounts of the first & second mortgages, and any other debts against the home. Sometimes there is enough left over so that the homeowner is able to rent a place for a month or two.

Fire-proof construction: A type of construction where non-burnable materials are used. Is not used in residential construction in the US.

Sprinklers: A cheap effective way to protect a home from fire damage. This method is not widely used in the US because it is not required by the lenders that put up the money. The lender really doesn't care if your house burns, because he is fully insured and requires you to pay for his coverage each month as a condition of the mortgage.

Wind-resistant construction: A type of home construction, where the foundation is extra heavy, the walls are bolted to the foundation, and the roof is bolted to the walls. This type of construction is not used for residential developments in the US.

Storm-proof, fire-proof home: A type of earth-sheltered house that can be built, but currently very few exist in the US.

Earthquake-resistant home: A house made cast-in-place concrete, all walls, floor slabs, and roof slab tied together with steel reenforcing rods. Very few exist in the US, and your insurance does not cover earthquake damage.

Flood plain: A contour map that locates the areas of likely flooding. If your house is in a flood plain, then it can not be insured with normal homeowners insurance.

"Protecting against looters": What the Authorities in Charge will tell you when you try to get back into your house, after leaving it for a hurricane, flood, earthquake, or tornado. Once you get out, you will not be able to get back in, because They will have blocked off the streets, and posted guards. You can't go back in because it "isn't safe". No matter that every Tom, Dick, and Harry is pawing through your underwear scattered all over the street. No matter that your neighbor did not leave and is stitting in his house now.

Screwed: What the homeowner will be that depends on insurance for protection against the elements...

Storm-proof, fire-proof, earthquake-resistant self-insured self financed home: I only know of one in existence.
 
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Peter said...
"I agree you that one should be willing to leave their money in a stock for a year or more but I reserve the right to sell at any time. Stuff happens. There should be no minimum holding time."

I think I hear you saying something that almost sounds like it agrees with me... at least to the extent that leaving the money in the particular stock for a long period lends itself to help stabilize the marketplace. I think we can agree on that.

But then, as you say, you don't want to be forced to stay locked into a loser. I can appreciate that. But my point is that having that ability so readily available was the formula for the Enron fiasco criminal activity. The Enron deal was certainly not the first time this happened. It was simply among the biggest cases.

Without imposing that minimum investment time you leave the door open to instability and more Enron type business activity. (That limit would not apply to stock-options until they are exercised, and of course, you don't own them until you exercise them.)

Aside from what "you" want to be able to do, I wonder if that limit would really be detrimental to the marketplace?

If not, then the answer is clear... impose the limit!


Tim said...
"Your statement about the political parties is even more marked tan you might realize. In fact, if you look at the platforms of the parties from a century ago, what you discover is - they've reversed!"

Tim, that is exactly what I was eluding to. But my point was that people should vote on the issues... not the Party.


Peter said...
"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to he States respectively, or to the people."

I know that you were using this in reference to FEMA, but this brings a very interesting point to the surface.

If the Fed has only those rights surrendered by the States, then shouldn't the States have only those rights surrendered by the Citizens of the particular States?

And those rights, not surrendered by the people to the States... shouldn't the people retain those rights? Yeah, I know, it says they do. Hmmm...

I just thought it something worth mentioning.

Sometimes I think maybe those folks in the backhills of Idaho ain't really that far off.

Now, back to your FEMA reference...

While not mentioned in the Constitution, FEMA is a government agency that was duely created, authorized, and funded, by the Congress of the United States. It was created legally under the auspices of the Constitution. In as much as the Congress is supposed to represent the people, and the Congress created FEMA, then, by extention, FEMA was created by the people, for the people.


That agency was supposed to exist for the benefit of the people involved in disaster emergencies. FEMA was charged with a responsibility. It failed miserably. And the reason it failed was because it had been essentially emasculated when it was swept up into that bogus Homeland Security Agency. Meanwhile, an idiot (a horse breeder?) was put in-charge of it, and at the same time, it was de-funded.

Several years ago, FEMA was among the top-rated government agencies. It was highly respected by the States, because it worked very well with the States.

We are entitled to FEMA because we created it! However, we are also entitled to a FUNCTIONING FEMA!


geniusintraining said...
"Terry you have a excuse you’re a democrat...typical"

git,
I've been a registered Independent for almost 25 years.
I have voted Republican, Democrat and Third Party.


cntrlfrk said...
"The mentality 'The Federal Government Failed Us' will surely result in a newly structured, bigger, better government agency that will take care of us next time. In other words, it will spend more taxpayer money, have more control, and it still won't be able to stop a hurricane."

Just a bit over 6 years ago, FEMA was one of the top-rated agencies in the government. The government at that time was a lot smaller, the defecit was a heck of a lot smaller, we were looking at a multi-trillion dollar surplus over the next decade. Right now, this is the largest government, with the largest debt that has ever existed!

Is that progress?


Ron said...
"As for STOCKS etc we are suppose to be a Capitalist and democratic nation. Many of the thoughts and concepts presented in this thread are of a socialistic nature."

Ron,
The problem with the American version of Capitalism is that it does not like to deal with competition. There used to be hundreds of oil companies in the States. Now there are only four. And those four have essentially eliminated competition amongst themselves. That is their idea of Capitalism!
 
Oh to be perfect in all ways.

Everyone (in America at least) has a right to their own opinions, but I'm just sick and tired of the last 6 years of Bush bashing. Anything undesireable happens, it's Bushs fault. Jeepers! Has GWB done anything good?

I am happy to be a free American. I am just as happy that I only need to bear the weight for the consquences of my own decisions, in my own little world and not have to bear the weight for everything that goes wrong on this whole entire earth.
 
dalem said:
I am just as happy that I only need to bear the weight for the consquences of my own decisions, in my own little world and not have to bear the weight for everything that goes wrong on this whole entire earth.

Apparently your not an employer...and or nobodys sliped on you icy sidewalk....YET...
 
elevmike said:
Apparently your not an employer...and or nobodys sliped on you icy sidewalk....YET...

Mike, Surely there's something there that an average person might know about, but would you please clearify for this dummy?

In the news today. "NSA has records for millions in the US". If one in that million results is a single lead which can be used to prevent another terrorist attack, great.
 
dalem said:
Mike, Surely there's something there that an average person might know about, but would you please clearify for this dummy?

In the news today. "NSA has records for millions in the US". If one in that million results is a single lead which can be used to prevent another terrorist attack, great.

I think what he means is that if you are an employer, a lot more people bear the weight of your decisions. Sometimes worse than you.
 
dalem,

In many ways you are responsable for other peoples careless actions. No-fault insurance: somebody bangs your car and you pay your deductable. If your an employer and one of your employees commits a neglent act while in the line of work, YOU are responsable. In many states, If it snows and somebody slips and falls on your driveway, YOU are responsable...

It goes on...Without much thought I can give hundreds of examples...I married a lawyer...now that I did and thats MY responsability...
 
Mike is referring to our convoluted and often absurd tort laws. Basically this -

If anyone is ever hurt while on your property, it's your fault, and you are liable. No exceptions.

If the neighborhood drunk tries to have intercourse with your dog while hopped up on Drain-O, and your dog mauls him, he can sue you.

If the neighborhood kid cuts through your yard for a shortcut, and trips on your septic cap and skins his knee, his parents can sue.

If someone breaks into your house, and you confront him with a gun, shoot to kill - dead men don't sue.

You are potentially liable for anything you have even the most tenuous attachment to. Remember the first rule of litigation - "Sue everybody, we'll sort them out later".

As an employer, Mike is doubly hosed. He's responsible for anything involving

1. Himself, his house or his family.
2. His company property.
3. His employees, on or potentially off the clock, for anything they do
4. His employees again, for anything done to them.
5. His equipment, regardless of why it broke.

Alot of people - myself included - shy away from opening my own business simply because of the exposure.

TM

Hey, this thread's been hijacked twice - is that a record, or does my first one count?
 
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Each state is a bit different, but Tim's on the right track...

In the state of Texas the homeowner is responsible for the wellbeing of everyone on his or her property at all times unless that person is in the act of committing a crime.

If someone walks across your front yard and breaks their leg tripping over your sprinkler you are liable for their broken leg.

If someone walks across your front yard and breaks their leg tripping over your sprinkler while walking to your house to break in and steal your TV you are not liable for their broken leg if you can prove that their intent was to break into your house; if you can't prove their intent was to break into your house then you are liable.

If someone breaks into your house and steals your TV and then breaks their leg by tripping over your sprinkler while holding your TV then you are not liable for their broken leg.

If someone breaks into your house and is still in your house you can shoot them in an attempt to stop them; if they wind up dieing from this you are not liable so long as you did not use "excessive" force.

If someone breaks into your house and they then leave your house, but are still in your yard you can't shoot them.

Moral of the story? In Texas shoot to kill (dead men tell no tails) and make sure the blood trail starts inside your house and you still have a few rounds in the clip.

Aint it a grand world we live in?
 
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Back to the original topic...this was not caused by the average joe, this was big money taking profits, there is nothing wrong with that, it just life.

The market is a gamble if you put a time limit on the sell of stock then, that would be one more thing leaving the good old USA, I day trade and other then a 5 min. limit (that is how long it take for my indicators to mature), I would no longer trade on the CME.

I feel for the people that had all of their money in Enron or one of the other failures, but one thing that you learn when you start trading is to be diverse, I also know that the vast majority of this was the retirement and they were forced to keep the shares in there. It sucks and that is the type of people that the government should step up and take some of my 33% (that I’m giving them) and help.

and Terry, I still think your a democrat or at least a bleeding heart liberal (but I still enjoy reading your posts)

DJI.gif
 
dalem said...

"In the news today. "NSA has records for millions in the US". If one in that million results is a single lead which can be used to prevent another terrorist attack, great."

Let's play "substitution"... (and of course, let's do like all developers should do... let's use the extreme case.)

The government has arrested and executed millions in the US. If one in those millions was guilty, which can be used to prevent other people from doing something that might be considered illegal, great.

dalem, it appears that you have no sense of, and certainly no appreciation for, history. You apparently have no sense of why and how this country came to be. Nor do you recognize what this country has gone through since then. And you clearly don't understand what the citizens of other countries have gone through.

As a child, didn't you learn things? Didn't you carry those things forward with you into adulthood? Or... have you decided to throw off all of your experiences, good and bad, and deal with each new situation as it occurs without the benefit of those experiences? You haven't done that have you?

What is the difference between a child and a new country, or an adult and an older country? Nothing! Nothing but scale!

Experience, or History, counts in both cases!

Without understanding why and how previous laws came to be... how can you proclaim the legitimacy of any current action that violates those laws?

git...
"...bleeding heart liberal."?

I do indeed believe in the Death Penalty.
I do indeed believe, very strongly, in the right to bear arms (because that government might need to be taken down!).
I drink beer, smoke, swear like a sailor, and eat lots of carbos and beef.
I can't stand those damned do-gooders that want to control how an individual conducts himself (without screwing with others, of course).
I believe that anyone that might want to start a neighborhood association should be subjected to Capital Punishment! (That might be a little harsh... or maybe not enough?)
I can't stand the way that "WE" are being manipulated by big-business (Oil Companies, Insurance Companies, Pharmaceutical Companies, and others that are trying to BURN US, CONTROL US for the sake of their bottom-line!).

I also believe that "WE" have to fight the "legal and fair fight" even when the opponent is not doing so! It only makes us better for having done so!

As a really big example, even though I felt he was guilty, I was, and still am, very glad that O.J. was found Not Guilty!

Why? Because it was made clearly evident that the cops had played games with the evidence! The cops didn't do what they had to do to fight the "legal and fair fight"! They cheated! I don't want to be subject to cops that cheat!

In that respect, it doesn't matter that the bad-guys cheat! THAT'S WHAT THEY DO! THAT'S WHY THEY ARE THE BAD GUYS! The good-guys are not supposed to cheat!

In this endevour, the good-guys are supposed to have very competent people doing the job! If they are not competent, then they need to go back on the beat.

Now, that does raise a question... is assaination legitimate?

I'll leave that open for now.

Where do you see "bleeding heart" in there?
 
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