OT: Coronavirus do you care?

Toine · Mar 11, 2020

drbitboy said:
Because of COViD 19, all TCP internet services are being re-written to use UDP, because there is less handshaking.

Nerd humor, gotta love it

JesperMP · Mar 12, 2020

Now, all of Denmark is closing down. Schools, universities, any public services (except critical functions), are closed down. Public assemblies more than 100 people are banned.
In my own company all personnel that can work from home are ordered to work from home.
People are hoarding food supplies.

parky · Mar 12, 2020

My wife & I have just returned from a month in Thailand, I am retired but my wife works, she has been told that she needs to self isolate for two weeks before returning to work (food production), In Thailand, they have got it right, most shopping malls and other places like airports are checking temperatures, supplying hand sanitiser, etc. Considering Thailand (Bangkok) is a central hub for travel from many Asian countries especially China & Korea the number of cases is extremely low and only in the north at the moment. We spent most of our time in the south and no problems there, however, we had to travel to Bangkok for our flight, 5 days on and no symptoms fingers crossed.

geniusintraining · Mar 12, 2020

JesperMP said:
Now, all of Denmark is closing down. Schools, universities, any public services (except critical functions), are closed down. Public assemblies more than 100 people are banned.
In my own company all personnel that can work from home are ordered to work from home.
People are hoarding food supplies.

We are right behind you... the NBA has suspended the season and im sure most if not all events will be canceled for all sports, I do think if we take drastic measures it will be controlled (somewhat)

I do think its still going to get worse before it gets better

parky said:
she needs to self isolate for two weeks

Hope you and your wife are clear parky

Iner · Mar 12, 2020

Lot of trips in country and abroad are being cancelled. It will definitely affect the economy a lot in addition to the health of many people.

Paullys50 · Mar 12, 2020

I'm starting to care.

I have a scheduled trip next week for 2-3 weeks taking me through 2 major airports into the East Coast hot zone. Given the NBA suspended season, the no-fan NCAA tournament and now the European travel ban. Probably best to stay home despite the potential impact to the project, this isn't the flu.

Peter Nachtwey · Mar 12, 2020

Timbert said:
Godwin's Law in 76 posts.

If it is engineered, they did a really poor job of it. While the rate of spread might be above average, it isn't very deadly. 2% of the world population perhaps, with the current population growth rate that wouldn't even account for the population growth in two years.

Where did you get the 2% number? That is not right. The problem with main stream media, politicians and bureaucrats is that they are stupid or incompetent or corrupt.

What you are being told is that only 2% of the infected have died. While that may be true it isn't what matters. The infected are people just waiting for an out come. Either they die or recover. Many of the infected will die. What you should be paying attention to is the ratio of deaths/(deaths+recovered). That ratio is MUCH higher than 2%.
We don't know how many have recovered. We know how many have died. One would have to test virus free or perhaps have no symptoms after a month.

Also, about this quarantine for 2 week BS. Nothing is that predictable. There will be a bell curve of how long it takes symptoms to show. There will be an average which may be 2 weeks but there is also a standard deviation which could be a few days. In which case 1% will show symptoms 3 standard deviations after the average. That one percent is enough to keep spreading the disease. I don't believe the time to showing symptoms is a bell curve. I think it is skewed with a long tail extending to long periods of time.

What happens to the people that have recovered? Are they really virus free? Will people want to be around them? There will be a need for a lot of test kits.

Sorry to ruin your day but we are not getting the truth. No one is even asking the right questions. Anyone that claims to have this under control is fooling themselves and lying to all of us.

Firejo · Mar 12, 2020

geniusintraining said:
We are right behind you... the NBA has suspended the season and im sure most if not all events will be canceled for all sports, I do think if we take drastic measures it will be controlled (somewhat)

I do think its still going to get worse before it gets better

Hope you and your wife are clear parky

I don't think all sporting events will go the route the NBA has chosen nor do I think it would be the right move. There is way to much money involved outside of the actual event meaning in almost all cases, ticket sales and the peripherals (food, drinks, etc...) are a small percentage of the money brought in compared to TV revenue. On the surface that sounds cold but with all of that revenue there are thousands if not tens of thousands of jobs depending on it and simply shutting it off will have a significant impact on peoples lives and our economy.

The NCAA is going to play games without any fans at the event but they haven't had anyone test positive so as long as they put measures in place to minimize the likelihood that they will spread it around (among the players and staff) they should be OK. The NBA has had a positive result and because the incubation period is so long they can't contain it and have no choice but to not play games. If other sports take measures to isolate their players then they should still be able to have the games without anyone at the event. Not a perfect substitute but its also not putting many thousands of people out of work.

Regardless of how it comes down, it will be devastating at some level and sad that we have allowed it to get where it is but hopefully we can learn from it and make it less likely to go down this path again. I know, wishful thinking.

TurpoUrpo · Mar 12, 2020

Peter Nachtwey said:
Where did you get the 2% number? That is not right. The problem with main stream media, politicians and bureaucrats is that they are stupid or incompetent or corrupt.

What you are being told is that only 2% of the infected have died. While that may be true it isn't what matters. The infected are people just waiting for an out come. Either they die or recover. Many of the infected will die. What you should be paying attention to is the ratio of deaths/(deaths+recovered). That ratio is MUCH higher than 2%.
We don't know how many have recovered. We know how many have died. One would have to test virus free or perhaps have no symptoms after a month.

Also, about this quarantine for 2 week BS. Nothing is that predictable. There will be a bell curve of how long it takes symptoms to show. There will be an average which may be 2 weeks but there is also a standard deviation which could be a few days. In which case 1% will show symptoms 3 standard deviations after the average. That one percent is enough to keep spreading the disease. I don't believe the time to showing symptoms is a bell curve. I think it is skewed with a long tail extending to long periods of time.

What happens to the people that have recovered? Are they really virus free? Will people want to be around them? There will be a need for a lot of test kits.

Sorry to ruin your day but we are not getting the truth. No one is even asking the right questions. Anyone that claims to have this under control is fooling themselves and lying to all of us.

The number infected is not real number of infected. If one calculates known infected and recovered vs. known infected and dead the real death percentage will be lower than that. Remember, not everybody even get symptoms and not everybody that does not have symptoms get tested.

The 2 weeks quarantine is conservative one, 5-6 days from infection to symptoms is the normal incubation time. It might be that 2 weeks is not long enough for non-symptomatic to actually recover and not transmit the virus anymore, not sure about that.

geniusintraining · Mar 12, 2020

Peter Nachtwey said:
....

Peter I think it may be too early to look at the numbers, I think we need more data and time (for recovery) to get a good %

If you look at this site and then click on USA, you get https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

1323 confirmed
8 recovered
38 deaths

I think they only way to get a real number is wait for the other 1,277 to get better or worse

Firejo said:
Regardless of how it comes down, it will be devastating at some level and sad that we have allowed it to get where it is but hopefully we can learn from it and make it less likely to go down this path again.

I agree with that..

Firejo said:
I don't think all sporting events will go the route the NBA has chosen nor do I think it would be the right move.

Its starting, MLS and NHL and bunch of others just announced and more

Firejo · Mar 12, 2020

Peter Nachtwey said:
Many of the infected will die. What you should be paying attention to is the ratio of deaths/(deaths+recovered). That ratio is MUCH higher than 2%.

Statistics as of March 6th 2020 from WHO's situation report 46:
Overall mortality rate in China = 3.7%
Overall mortality rate outside of China = 1.9%

the media is not a good place to get accurate information including social media. The best information is coming from WHO (the World Health Origination), the CDC and your State and County Health departments.

mk42 · Mar 12, 2020

Possibly a silly question: Here in the US, we're constantly hearing about how the tests we have are unreliable and there aren't enough of them to test everyone who should be tested.

Is that a problem everywhere? I've only ever heard it said in the context of the US.

Timbert · Mar 12, 2020

Peter Nachtwey said:
Where did you get the 2% number?

At the time I wrote that, both the WHO and CDC were citing numbers in that range 2-4%.

Peter Nachtwey said:
What you are being told is that only 2% of the infected have died. While that may be true it isn't what matters. The infected are people just waiting for an out come. Either they die or recover. Many of the infected will die. What you should be paying attention to is the ratio of deaths/(deaths+recovered). That ratio is MUCH higher than 2%.

While this is true, the problem is there are not good numbers for this. Because what we typically have a good count on is the number of people in hospital. There are likely to be a large number of people who are infected but never develop severe symptoms and therefore don't get a positive COVID-19 diagnosis which will lower the mortality rate.

NetNathan · Mar 12, 2020

mk42 said:
Possibly a silly question: Here in the US, we're constantly hearing about how the tests we have are unreliable and there aren't enough of them to test everyone who should be tested.

Is that a problem everywhere? I've only ever heard it said in the context of the US.

Yes, this is a problem everywhere...

Due to lack of test kits...A lot of doctors are sending the people home for self quarantine and see if their fever increases and the come back in.
The big problem is who does the person infect as they are moving between the doctors office and home? Also....now the whole family becomes infected because of exposure to the infected person.
This the cruise ship problem. They keep everyone on the ship and slowly everybody gets infected.

lfe · Mar 12, 2020

Firejo said:
Statistics as of March 6th 2020 from WHO's situation report 46:
Overall mortality rate in China = 3.7%
Overall mortality rate outside of China = 1.9%

the media is not a good place to get accurate information including social media. The best information is coming from WHO (the World Health Origination), the CDC and your State and County Health departments.

This is because in outside of China many have recently been infected and they have not yet time to die or heal, but when the number of infected will stabilize for sure the mortality rate will approach that of China.

OT: Coronavirus do you care?

Toine

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JesperMP

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parky

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geniusintraining

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Iner

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Paullys50

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Peter Nachtwey

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Firejo

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TurpoUrpo

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geniusintraining

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Firejo

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mk42

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Timbert

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NetNathan

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lfe

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