Where did Elon Musk go wrong?

the problem with cars which are designed to automatically be "safe" is that they won't go fast enough to satisfy today's people ...

during a period of gasoline shortages (about 1972 if I recall) the maximum legal speed on the interstate highways was lowered to 55 MPH ... the statistics for accidents and deaths went drastically down ...

people went nuts and insisted that the speed limits be raised again ... the deadly statics went back up again too ...

all of those little clutches of plastic flowers and crosses that we see placed by the roadside represent hearts that have been broken - and families that have been destroyed ... it's entirely too easy to speed right on by - and assume that it always happens to "someone else" ...

sorry for the "dreary" thoughts - but when you get to be 71 years old, the world becomes a darker place ... (is that what they call "wisdom"?)

be careful out there folks ... you owe it to the ones you love - and to the ones who love you ...

Ron Beaufort said:

the problem with cars which are designed to automatically be "safe" is that they won't go fast enough to satisfy today's people ...

during a period of gasoline shortages (about 1972 if I recall) the maximum legal speed on the interstate highways was lowered to 55 MPH ... the statistics for accidents and deaths went drastically down ...

people raised Cain to have the speed limits raised ...

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I'm pretty sure that if you drop the speed down to zero, the car accident rate will be zero too.

However, I would say that speed is merely a contributor to other factors for accidents. Poorly designed or indicated roads, bad drivers, iPads instead of knobs on the dashboard, breakfast on the run, mirrors on the sun shade, 10 hour plus drives (this one is mostly for the US), etc, etc... are the real causes.
Speed just reduces the amount of time to react to all of these.

Additionally, if self driving cars take care of the congestion on the roads, speed limits will be of much less importance than they are now. I mean, I drove 80 miles today... 20 or 30 mile an hour extra on motorway wouldn't make a big deal on when I arrived, but if I hadn't have to stop in most of the traffic lights to wait for nothing then it would make a huge impact.

Speed is not the issue its a contrast of speed, someone driving slow in the fast lane and someone driving fast in the slow lane to get around them is where the issues happen, most of the time (in the past) its a driver driving too fast for conditions and when you couple that with (nowadays) dumb asses surfing the web or answering emails while driving its a wonder how anyone of us is not wrecking on a daily basis

My biggest pet peeve is the 'smart' phone in a dumb persons hands driving down the road, I admit it I was one of them... until I came close to taking out a person on the side of the road, I have never picked up my phone again while driving, I do talk but its hands free or I pull over and stop if its that important, I know this is way off topic but I do see the need for driverless cars if people are not going to pay attention

However, I would say that speed is merely a contributor to other factors for accidents.

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yes ... precisely ... no debate whatsoever ...

but personally, I have a hard time imagining how an "automatically" driven car – or even a car driven by a professionally trained and perfectly alert human driver for that matter – could safely accommodate unexpected road hazards such as an alligator crossing the highway at night ...

https://www.thestate.com/news/traffic/article210651209.html

or a deer ... or a shovel from a landscaper's truck ... or a blown tire casing ... or a fallen tree ...

I'm sure that radar or some sort of vision system might be adequate – but

NOT AT THE SPEEDS THAT MOST DRIVERS INSIST ON TRAVELING ...

there simply isn't enough reaction time to SAFELY avoid these types of unexpected obstacles when you're traveling at 75 or 80 miles per hour ... and especially in the dark ...

However, I would say that speed is merely a contributor to other factors for accidents.

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I fully agree ... but drivers today seem fully content to sacrifice their safety in the name of speed ... personally I don't get that ...

Ron Beaufort said:

there simply isn't enough reaction time to SAFELY avoid these types of unexpected obstacles when you're traveling at 75 or 80 miles per hour ....

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or 192

FactoryTalktotheHand said:

Maybe from a mechanistic "people are just numbers" perspective, sure. The problem is, politically, that would never fly. When something goes wrong, over everything else, we all need to have somebody to blame.

If a fully-autonomous vehicle malfunctions and kills people, who do we blame? Who do we arrest? Who do we fine, sanction, etc.? The Manufacturer? I'm sure they'll have plenty of CYA clauses in the purchase agreement. Not to mention, I don't know one programmer who's willing to say that it is absolutely guaranteed their program will never kill anyone ever, especially when it's a program as complicated as a self-driving car.

It is anathema to human psychology to simply shrug your shoulders and go "oh well, stuff happens" when someone dies in a car crash. We don't tend to think "big picture" when one of our loved ones or ourselves is affected negatively by something.

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We already have lots of fully automated machines with programmed safety systems with flaws just waiting for an accident to happen and they do happen. The risk cannot be zero.

And most people already shrug traffic deaths off unless it's a friend/family involved anyway.

Car design are a lot safer these days with front crumble zone, seat belt, and air bags:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

cardosocea said:

Additionally, if self driving cars take care of the congestion on the roads, speed limits will be of much less importance than they are now.

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I really would like to see a "close the gap" rule on expressways/highways/motorways that would allow and even require each driver to close the gap with the vehicle in front of his/her car to a safe distance if it is too large. But not to exceed, say 1.5 times of the posted speed limit.

That would help with congestions a lot. Most of them are not even congestions, just people driving too slow with an open space in front of them. Some are afraid of exceeding the speed limit even for a moment, some just do not think of others.

LadderLogic said:

I really would like to see a "close the gap" rule on expressways/highways/motorways that would allow and even require each driver to close the gap with the vehicle in front of his/her car to a safe distance if it is too large. But not to exceed, say 1.5 times of the posted speed limit.

That would help with congestions a lot. Most of them are not even congestions, just people driving too slow with an open space in front of them. Some are afraid of exceeding the speed limit even for a moment, some just do not think of others.

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1.5 times of what distance?

The problem around here is people tail-gate way too much. That actually slows down everyone. I know that is counter-intuitive in a way but if you understand stability curve, traffic flow curve is very similar. Interestingly, it looks similar to voltage stability. So, yes, the jerk who cut people too close and tailgate is slowing EVERYONE down.

https://i0.wp.com/availagility.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/scotland_karl_07.png

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Suugn-p5C1M

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtwY9xKfaYo

This is why they do ramp metering and "HOT" toll lane. It's to keep traffic from reaching the "tipping" point.


Of course, once ALL the cars are automated, that will change the dynamic of traffic flow theory.

harryting said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtwY9xKfaYo

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Only a electrical engineer would study traffic and figure out a way to make it better

Wonder if he is a member

geniusintraining said:

Only a electrical engineer would study traffic and figure out a way to make it better

Wonder if he is a member

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Makes sense. Does the hole move or dose the electron.

Voltage = cars, Current = speed.

When they are too close it causes friction and they all slow down, resistors.

When one idiot texts and drive, broken diode.

Pile up, blown fuse.

Of course, once ALL the cars are automated, that will change the dynamic of traffic flow theory.

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That brings up one reason I'm skeptical of self-driving cars, because I've lived most of my life here in King County (Seattle). The Growth Management Act was one of the most important laws of the past generation, that Ron Sims championed when he was King County Executive. Without the GMA, Carnation and Fall City and Enumclaw would already be congested with townhome and condo developments just like Redmond and Issaquah are.

Driving automation takes a *lot* of the stress out of commuting, as well as reducing risk and increasing efficiency.

When you have expensive cars that can shuttle wealthy drivers from a far-flung suburb on a single charge, that's going to *worsen* the suburban sprawl and increase the impact of gentrification on small towns and exurbs that are 20, 30, 40, 50 miles from downtown.

The way that sort of commuting ought to be done is on buses and trains. But if you can abdicate the responsibilities of driving and do it in a safe, private, comfortable private car... you might make that choice. A lot of people do. And it has a net effect of worsening traffic for everybody else.

Ken Roach said:

That brings up one reason I'm skeptical of self-driving cars

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Me 2...

IMHO, the only way self driving cars will succeed is by connecting the cars' brains to the roads' ones. There are too many variables related to the road's physical condition, geometry, topography and congestion that need to be computed by the vehicle's 'controller' for a 'safe' operation.

Unless each road provides 'real-time' (Input type) data to each vehicle at all times, there are only so many 'constant ranges' a programmer could take for granted while generating the vehicle's 'Automatic Algorithm'.

Once you're in a car that can do some of these basic things, you think even more sharply about the project.

This morning I let the Model 3 drive for several blocks in the city, and most of the way down the highway.

But before I got to the freeway on-ramp, I encountered:

1. A cement truck a foot across the center line, with a telephone pole preventing me from going onto the opposite shoulder.

2. Metal plates covering an excavation site and obscuring the intersection and lane markers.

3. Flaggers running a one-lane road.

4. UW students who walk out into the road with earphones in, hoodies obscuring their vision, and their eyes on their mobile phones.

5. A red squirrel.

All of those present substantial machine-vision and driving automation challenges. I was relieved when I got onto the limited-access road and only had to deal with mattresses falling off pickup trucks.

LoL, everytime I encounter one of these thing you listed above I would wonder how a machine would handle it and how I would engineer the system for the situation.

The other day, a plastic bag blown across the freeway. I just keep on going but how would a machine know it's a plastic bag vs a small child?