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Old August 13th, 2019, 12:19 PM   #1
geniusintraining
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OT: Manufacturing Global Slowdown?

In the past I had some good indicators that the US was starting to slow down and go into a cycle.

I worked in a printing plant and once they started to make more 'generic' labels was a key that people were buying on the cheaper side and had less free cash flow. Another was when I was working in the PCB industry, not exactly sure but we would slow and everyone else would be right behind.

I have heard that the world is slowing and just going through a cycle.

The 10yr/2yr has been a good indicator in the past and by the looks of it we are about 12-15 months out, typically when the 10/2 inverts than a recession has been around the corner, today we hit 0.016 https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=10Y2YS

Are you busy or slow? Since I have time to think about this and type it out I would say I am on the slower side
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Old August 13th, 2019, 01:10 PM   #2
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I, along with a few others I know in Detroit, am considerably slower.

Quite a few of my customers are working shorter hours, less production, etc. Some of them are slow due to cheap products available from China. (I had a customer that needed a new battery for a Clark electric pallet jack and they got a brand new Chinese one with shipping and a warranty for less than a battery. They figure if it dies it will be less to buy a new one every year or 2)
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Old August 13th, 2019, 02:18 PM   #3
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I have had a few relatively quiet months earlier this year. Last two months we have landed multiple new projects. We are hiring new staff again and I will be very very busy at least until Christmas. Prospects for 2020 seem to indicate it will be a good year.
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Old August 13th, 2019, 04:28 PM   #4
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We are slow slow down here.
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Old August 13th, 2019, 08:37 PM   #5
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Here in Nebraska, my customers are mostly busy. The biggest problems they list are a shortage of people, skilled or otherwise.
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Old August 13th, 2019, 08:39 PM   #6
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I am in the detroit area, we are slower than normal. I hear in the near future some of our customers will be adding parts that will require new lines but who knows that could be a year out. Alot of our customers are doing retools and adding operations/new parts to existing equipment.
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Old August 13th, 2019, 11:15 PM   #7
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Southern Indiana busy as can be. Everyone hiring but not enough people to go around. Cummins takes a lot of them.
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Old August 14th, 2019, 12:50 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bob1371 View Post
Southern Indiana busy as can be. Everyone hiring but not enough people to go around. Cummins takes a lot of them.
So are wages going up?

I'm mostly seeing people are busy and not seeing any real signs of slow down.
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Old August 14th, 2019, 04:55 AM   #9
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Business was slow for the first 4-5 months of the year, but started to turn upward in June, now we are wide open, everyone is super busy. I believe year will finish strong.
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Old August 14th, 2019, 05:10 AM   #10
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Dont the US see some manufacturing go up because the trade war with china means some manufacturing moves from China to US ?
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Old August 14th, 2019, 05:24 AM   #11
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I know Im not in the USA but.....

I have to say here in my neck of the woods, production seems to be going very well.

I have at least 6 jobs within 1 hour of my home that all fit my job discretion well, just today. All sort of a design / build machine and control systems type of gig.
All saying "a bachelors degree in electronics or similar experience is preferred".
All paying excellent money for our area. Also, all vacant for some time now and actually reaching out to ask us to apply. (us being local Automation minded folks)

They are in the forestry, mining, ship building, food production, packaging producers, machine builder OEMs as well as pharmaceutical producers. Not to mention the POT industry which has brought us 2 massive production facilities locally. Good or bad thing for the area, I'm not sure but its work!

It looks like they are struggling to hire and keep but for folks in my shoes, its good to see so many possible opportunities. It also keeps our current companies treating us well.

Even the local electrical contractors are struggling with licensed man power. I can tell when we give them work in the plant its always a juggling act for them to get the right guys in here.

Last edited by PLC Pie Guy; August 14th, 2019 at 05:27 AM.
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Old August 14th, 2019, 05:38 AM   #12
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I work for an automotive supplier. The number of new product and project requests are up but management is starting to slow on their acceptance of spending. Our workload is up at the moment and we have had the largest group of college interns here in a long time. I keep getting hints that there will be a major slowdown in the next 2-3 years.
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Old August 14th, 2019, 05:47 AM   #13
geniusintraining
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JesperMP View Post
Dont the US see some manufacturing go up because the trade war with china means some manufacturing moves from China to US ?
Not yet and not sure if ever... most of its just 'war of words' (children), it takes time for companies to relocate out of China and a lot are looking at other Asian countries but then there is talk about tariffs with them most companies are just sucking up the added cost.

The 10/2 did invert last night so it looks like there is a good chance of something around the corner
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