OT: Coronavirus do you care?

rupej said:

You should learn what a social democracy is, which is what the poster above me was referring to.

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I learned that "socialism" is whatever one define it to be so their point turns out to be valid.

You all should be happy now.

I'm near the epicenter (in the USA) close to where that nursing home is. Store are now decently stocked but they also implemented certain quantity limit.

I have a brother living in Taiwan, where tons of people goes back and forth to mainland China. Life is still going on ok and they have been involved with this for months. However, as I said, they have much better control and test is on demand, no charge $.

There are other countries that are able to contain the outbreak.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/opin...-learn-from-singapore-hk-bociurkiw/index.html

We can deal with this without going to extreme. I'm still ****ed how unprepared we were though with weeks and weeks of warning.

Sorry if this has been said before but this is a long thread. A different view for you.

rant starting:

The death rate for people who don't have underlying conditions is low, very low, very very low. Sorry Peter but your calculations are wrong because they don't take in to account people who have mild or no symptoms and so aren't tested. The biggest risk right now is economic melt down, business going bust, lost jobs. It sticks in my throat to say it but the UK government is taking mostly the right track. Reduce contact for those with underlying medical conditions but leave the rest of us to get on with it. Children without underlying conditions are barely affected. Herd immunity is the best approach. You say that China have got a hold on the situation, but they have a lot of people with no immunity, if they reduce restrictions and there is one person still with the virus they will be back to square one very quickly. A vaccine will be available at some point, but it is months/years away. For the US people here, would you rather die looked after in hospital because you have health insurance or would you rather be getting food stamps and die at home because the business shut down and a world of people lost their jobs. More people will die of poverty caused by our reaction to covid-19 than those through infection with covid-19
rant over.

BryanG,


Wholeheartedly agree.


And remember - the media reported there would be a toilet paper shortage and there now is. Not because they were correct in predicting it, but people overreacted to their ratings-grabbing hype and bought as much as they could, so the media can now say they were correct in predicting it.


Then they add milk and eggs, fresh produce, .................

I am right on with Peter. I have been following this since January. The truth is out there for one willing to find it. There are three stages in The Truth. First it is Ridiculed Second it it Violently Opposed. And Third it becomes Self Evident. There is no Herd Immunity and the way and rate this spreads will overwhelm the Health System. You cannot compare to the flue season because of this.. Mortality Rate is not the same as Case Fatality Rate. We are about 10 Days behind Italy because we didn't do anything early on. Singapore and south Korea Hong Kong took an aggressive response Early On and why you see a less than 1% case fatality rate. Age Obesity Ongoing Health conditions play a factor. Italy now is doing triage and not taking elderly patients. This is the grim reality and why it is important to span out and flatten the curve. I get why a lot are in denial but you need to help your community all we have is each other and can hope it is spanned out in your community.. The WHO is in china's Wallet CDC did not believe or act. We still don't have the proper testing. The Media lost all credibility a Long time ago.. Want some good real Information Look Up Dr John Campbell and Peak Prosperity Youtube. Probably the best information you can get. Remember believe nothing Question Everything.Get your own facts and come to your own conclusions and use your senses to get the facts.

Aabeck said:

BryanG,


Wholeheartedly agree.


And remember - the media reported there would be a toilet paper shortage and there now is. Not because they were correct in predicting it, but people overreacted to their ratings-grabbing hype and bought as much as they could, so the media can now say they were correct in predicting it.


Then they add milk and eggs, fresh produce, .................

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+1 for Aabeck. My girlfriend and I went into the Meijer on 13 mile near Dequindre Saturday night and it was a disaster. It looked like a store in Russia. Every shelf in the paper goods aisle was empty; looked more like it was just finished being installed. NOTHING at all on those shelves. I think the MSNM is causing more problems than the virus itself.

kalabdel said:

As soon as I browsed to youtube I got a popup of Public Health Canada announcement. Do I care, I don't know what care means;am I concerned, not yet. But I like the idea of "self isolation", anything that keeps me away fro human beings is a plus.

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+1 for Kalabdel. I have a shirt that says "Detroit" on the front and "Warning: does not play well with others" on the back. So as you pointed out, this is a blessing for me. Just the fact that there are no unproductive in-person meetings now is great. We can be unproductive on google hangouts.

One death is one too many if its preventable

I do think we need to try and isolate it until we can get something to prevent it, I am starting to get concerned about what its going to do to the economy, I know long term the world will be just fine but short term its going to hurt

BryanG said:

Sorry Peter but your calculations are wrong because they don't take in to account people who have mild or no symptoms and so aren't tested.

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Nor does it take into account that the Chinese are lying to the number of deaths they have reported are low.
However, the numbers are correct within a confidence level.
The other numbers that the MSM report assume that NONE of the infected will die. This is not right.
The numbers for Korea are pretty good because they have been testing.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
8236 confirmed. 75 died and 1137 recovered.
That is a 6.18% mortality rate. The rest are waiting to go into the death or recovered group.
This isn't what the main stream media is reporting.
In the US the numbers are much worse mostly because a nursing home got infected.

The biggest risk right now is economic melt down, business going bust, lost jobs.

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We are still operating. Some people are staying at home taking sick days. I am at work.

Herd immunity is the best approach.

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There is no herd immunity....yet. There won't be until there is a vaccine or it is proven that once one recovers they are immune but so far this is not the case. Even so, one that is immune could still carry the virus.

A vaccine will be available at some point, but it is months/years away.

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This is why the spread must be slowed down.

My rant is about the Chinese who lied and the WHO that kowtowed to the Chinese saying there was no need for travel restrictions. I would also add those fools that brought back infected people from that cruise ship in Japan.
By the time we restricted access it was too late. The same goes for Italy which the WHO says has the second best medical system but was caught unprepared too.

What should have happened is when the first word of a potentially new virus appears, the borders are shut down until the effects of the virus are known.
The Chinese government refused entry of the CDC.
https://nypost.com/2020/02/03/china-has-yet-to-allow-cdc-in-country-to-help-with-coronavirus/
We should have started the travel ban too and from China then. No cooperation. No travel.


BTW, socialism is when the state owns the means of production.
What most countries have is a mix of capitalism and welfare. That includes the Nordic countries.

In my opinion the vaccine exists, but like in Laura Croft - Tomb Raider.

Those willing and able to pay the $2 Million price per dose can get one.

Also, as far as the numbers of deaths go, private chats out of Wuhan China are saying that over 1500 bodies have been incinerated in that city so the virus doesn't spread out of them. A couple weeks ago China reported a certain number of new cases, that the rate was decreasing, but the same time Wuhan city reported more new cases in the city than China reported for the entire country.

Also, I chat with a salesperson from ShanZhen, near Wuhan, and frequently get asked to confirm news information that has so far been very wrong in what the Chinese people are being told. They are being told the death rate in China is lower than China is reporting to the outside world, and have been told the number of deaths in the USA alone was greater than the number of worldwide deaths at the time.

The numbers for Korea are pretty good because they have been testing.

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The numbers for Korea are skewed because the outbreak mainly occurred in a religious sect that kept the cases secret and untreated. It also has a high population density ranked at 13th in the world. Higher levels of infection seem to translate to higher death rates.

We are still operating. Some people are staying at home taking sick days. I am at work

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Which is great for you but less help to the Airline staff, taxi drivers, cafe owners, restaurant staff and owners, hotel staff and owners, train staff and operators, tourism industry, companies that supply the tourism industry, aircraft fuel manufacturers, airport ground staff. Then if you close schools the parents have to stay at home to look after the children reducing the numbers of nurses, doctors, ambulance staff, and some less useful people, but again shrinking the economy. People staying at home use less fuel so the garages and petrol companies suffer. Anyone with a pension invested in the stock market has taken a hit, that may recover but may be realised if/when companies go bust. So I stick to my premise that the economic impacts are likely to be huge and just shutting a system down may not be the best course of action. You just need one infected person to start it all again.

BTW, socialism is when the state owns the means of production.
What most countries have is a mix of capitalism and welfare. That includes the Nordic countries.

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No argument there. No pure system ends up working, it always settles as a mix, it is just a matter of degree.

BryanG said:

Anyone with a pension invested in the stock market has taken a hit

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Old people with pensions should be mostly in bonds and stocks that pay dividends. They will be OK until the interest on the bonds or the dividends can't be paid. In theory I lost way over $100K last month but that will only really happen if I panic and sell. The market will come back eventually. If it doesn't there are bigger things to worry about. "Don't Panic!"

, that may recover but may be realised if/when companies go bust.

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Yes, our sales people are basically told not to visit. Everything is done by phone. February was our best February ever. March got off to a good start but I fear everything is stopped now.

So I stick to my premise that the economic impacts are likely to be huge and just shutting a system down may not be the best course of action. You just need one infected person to start it all again.

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Yes, unfortunately I think the attitudes will change if a vaccine isn't found quickly and they will do what China has done and just say "get back to work, if you die you die". You know that China has not stopped stopped the spread and many companies there are not open even though they have been ordered to open and in some cases they are open and have no customers anyway. We have a distributor in China and keep in touch. On Weibo or WeChat there are arguments about who started this mess. The Chinese blame the US now. Funny how their story keeps changing.

I fear a credit crunch. Back in late 2008 it was hard to get a loan. Companies with low profit margins and no savings will go out of business. It is inevitable. Huge companies have taken on lots of debt to buy back stocks. They will be in trouble too.

Peter Nachtwey said:

Spoken like a bureaucrat.

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What the hell is that?! In spite of the fact that you are leaving the door wide open to make personal attacks I've chosen not to. This is suppose to be a discussion not a bashing when someone doesn't agree with you. You don't know who I am, you don't know what it is I do nor do you know anything about my political beliefs. I'm not going to respond to your points because its clear to me that you've made up your mind and all you're out to do is tell others why they are wrong.
P.S. That is simply my point of view.

There may also be some correlation of temperature and the spread of the virus. Most of the hot spots seem to be in the same temperature range, places hotter or colder may have some infections but it is not spreading rapidly.


Obviously we don't have all the data as of yet, and only time will tell for sure how it plays out. Also the social isolation and quarantining will help slow down the spread of the infection.


Here a link to a YouTube video from Kim Iversen on her observations. She is not a scientist but looks at information in a rational matter, and admits she may not be right but it does give something to think about.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9w58SYc7JYY

Mark Snodgrass said:

There may also be some correlation of temperature and the spread of the virus. Most of the hot spots seem to be in the same temperature range, places hotter or colder may have some infections but it is not spreading rapidly.


Obviously we don't have all the data as of yet, and only time will tell for sure how it plays out. Also the social isolation and quarantining will help slow down the spread of the infection.


Here a link to a YouTube video from Kim Iversen on her observations. She is not a scientist but looks at information in a rational matter, and admits she may not be right but it does give something to think about.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9w58SYc7JYY

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My understanding is that a warmer temperature has an effect because the warmer the temperature the faster the droplets that the virus lives in will evaporate.

Even though SARS CoV 2 is technically an "Airborne" virus the reality is that it's a fluidborne virus that will survive without the fluid (exact time frame on what surface hasn't been determined last I checked) but it will not "float" in the air like TB does. It falls to whatever surface is below it making it much less likely you will get infected. In contrast, TB will remain Airborne after the fluid evaporates making it much easier to inhale even after the infected person leaves the area.

SARS CoV 2 will not hang around in the air for very long which is why they say to avoid "close contact". It will be interesting to see if warmer temperatures will have an effect and if they do, come on Summer!!!

Please note that most of the information above comes from 30 years of EMS experience and that I believe it to be accurate. However, I am not an expert in these sorts of things and if the subject is something you feel is important to know about I encourage you to not take my word as anything other than a baseline to research against. The WHO and CDC would be good places to start. I make these posts in hopes that someone will get benefit from them and do so with the best of intentions.