OT: Coronavirus do you care?

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As soon as I browsed to youtube I got a popup of Public Health Canada announcement. Do I care, I don't know what care means;am I concerned, not yet. But I like the idea of "self isolation", anything that keeps me away fro human beings is a plus.

covid.PNG
 
Do you know what prize a person wins for sitting through a successful isolation / quarantine period?

The opportunity to sit through another. and another. .. .

At least until people can be rapidly tested, or widely vaccinated. Or enough of the population gets the disease, recover, and have some immunity.
 
Do you know what prize a person wins for sitting through a successful isolation / quarantine period?

The opportunity to sit through another. and another. .. .

At least until people can be rapidly tested, or widely vaccinated. Or enough of the population gets the disease, recover, and have some immunity.
Yeah, I almost wish I would get it already, while there are still plenty of beds available (at least here).
 
Our Governor in Michigan ordered all K-12 schools in the State to close for 3 weeks.


What are all those darn hoodlums supposed to do during this time? LOL
 
I think at this time, it's basically a foregone conclusion that 60-90% of the world population are going to get the virus. Figures are also showing that around 30% of cases require medical intervention.

A primary concern is obviously the mortality rate being (by current estimates) around 10 times more lethal than the flu. China is showing around a 3.4% mortality rate (34 times more lethal than the flu).

While it's true that there are going to be mild cases that don't get reported, it's also undoubtedly true that some people are dying without being tested. I think the CDC is aiming at a pretty good point thinking the actual mortality rate is around 1%, at least with the data we have currently.

That means when all is said and done, worldwide:

4.62 - 6.93 billion infected
1.39 - 2.08 billion requiring medical support
46.2 - 69.3 million dead

These are very fluid estimates. A mutation could make things much worse. A vaccine or improved testing and treatment could help stop or slow the progression.

We have to be smart. Don't panic, but take precautions. Wash our hands, stay away from crowds, don't touch your face. The economic damage is going to be just as scary, I think, as the virus itself.

But we'll get through it. One thing our species is fantastic at is closing ranks in the face of a common enemy. Remember that everyone is scared right now, and try to be patient and caring of those around you. The main goal now is to slow the progression enough to keep our health systems from going under water.

Good luck, everyone.
 
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H1N1 (similar R0) only got 11% to 21% globally according to a follow up study. I think that 60%-90% is way too high especially with the precautions being taken to slow it down. I'd be surprised if it infects 5% before the vaccine is available.
 
This is because in outside of China many have recently been infected and they have not yet time to die or heal, but when the number of infected will stabilize for sure the mortality rate will approach that of China.

Maybe, maybe not. The "outside China" list included other areas that have high numbers of infected people (albeit not as high as China) and their numbers aren't climbing that high. The short story is Covid-19 is killing people who are already very sick and/or have their immune system compromised. While the US currently has a very screwed up health care system, we are still much healthier than in China and the number of people (as a percentage of overall population) that are vulnerable is higher. That's really what's going to drive the numbers, the percentage of people who are at high risk and what steps are being taken to protect them.
 
I think at this time, it's basically a foregone conclusion that 60-90% of the world population are going to get the virus. Figures are also showing that around 30% of cases require medical intervention.

A primary concern is obviously the mortality rate being (by current estimates) around 10 times more lethal than the flu. China is showing around a 3.4% mortality rate (34 times more lethal than the flu).

While it's true that there are going to be mild cases that don't get reported, it's also undoubtedly true that some people are dying without being tested. I think the CDC is aiming at a pretty good point thinking the actual mortality rate is around 1%, at least with the data we have currently.

That means when all is said and done, worldwide:

4.62 - 6.93 billion infected
1.39 - 2.08 billion requiring medical support
46.2 - 69.3 million dead

These are very fluid estimates. A mutation could make things much worse. A vaccine or improved testing and treatment could help stop or slow the progression.

We have to be smart. Don't panic, but take precautions. Wash our hands, stay away from crowds, don't touch your face. The economic damage is going to be just as scary, I think, as the virus itself.

But we'll get through it. One thing our species is fantastic at is closing ranks in the face of a common enemy. Remember that everyone is scared right now, and try to be patient and caring of those around you. The main goal now is to slow the progression enough to keep our health systems from going under water.

Good luck, everyone.

One thing that is being overlooked with regards to the mortality rate is that a large majority of those are are dying from Covid-19 were very sick to begin with and likely not to have survived any illness such as the flu.

Not to minimize this, but in general (and for certain in my area) healthy people who are turning up positive are not dying and most of them barely notice they are sick.

Having said that, caution is still very much warranted and if we can slow this thing down we should.

The other thing that gets overlooked is the stress on the EMS and ER systems. If you have say 100,000 people in a given region that get sick enough to require medical intervention and they all get sick inside of a week, the systems for treating them will get overwhelmed. However is the same number of people get sick but over a three week period, it will be easier for the systems to keep up. That is probably the best reason, as it stands right now, to take precautions and slow the spread. We have already lost the fight to stop this thing, now we need to focus on minimizing the damage.
 
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