Short sellers - Cut your losses before the year end

LadderLogic · Dec 31, 2019

Aabeck said:
The problem with building nuclear plants is that to properly operate them safely is cost prohibitive, and utility companies are in business to make money - not electricity.

That is correct - they are in business for the sake of profit, what else makes people work?

Therefore, they will invest in the plant safety for a simple reason that any even minor accident will certainly cost them much much more.

Ideally, nuclear plants should be built in remote lightly populated areas, serviced by shifting crews and the transmission lines interconnected into one multi-level grid.

Toine · Jan 1, 2020

Ken Roach said:
In my state, every EV owner pays a $225 annual surcharge when we renew our license tabs. That's roughly equivalent to the average amount of gas taxes we don't pay.

Wow. Now I understand why we can maintain a higher quality road infrastructure compared to north america. We pay a multitude of those taxes. On a new car we have on top of VAT (which is 21%) an extra tax for road vehicles which is more than that. Roughly speaking 40 - 45% tax on a new car. Road tax for my car is €45 per month. That is a small car by north american standards, empty weight below 1200kg, heavier vehicle pays more tax. About 75% of our fuel prices is tax.

Aabeck · Jan 1, 2020

Just keep in mind - governments are not going to let an opportunity to make money slip by.

Tax everything they can.

And, if they figure out how to license a profession they make money off the tests and annual licenses - that is the real reason why Michigan licensed auto mechanics years ago, they have made millions since from that. My ex-wife had to get licensed to be a nurses aid in a nursing home, that actually cost us over $1500 that her employer "wasn't responsible for"

Not going to open a can of worms here by mentioning a certain field we all hold near and dear to our hearts that isn't licensed (unless you're a PE)

Ken Roach · Jan 1, 2020

Yes, we dramatically under-pay for motor fuel taxes in America.

Motor vehicle taxes and fees are stupid political dispute in my area. Decades ago we had a "tax revolt" based on "$30 car tabs". The initiative passed, but instead of reducing diversion of auto license fees to other government projects (away from roads, buses, and trains) the government just imposed new fees that are paid at the same time to the same agency but appear on a different line item.

I pay $30 for my vehicle registration annually, but $700 total in fees to be eligible to pay that $30.

Oh, and that reminds me, I have to go pay my annual fee this week, to the same Department of Licensing... for my PE license.

Peter Nachtwey · Jan 1, 2020

Ken Roach said:
Yes, we dramatically under-pay for motor fuel taxes in America.

No we don't. Our gas tax is 49.4 cents per gallon which is about the national average. The fed's portion of that is 18.4 cents per gallon.

My car cost $180/year for licensing. I don't mind this too much because our highways between where I live and work got repaved and marked.

Motor vehicle taxes and fees are stupid political dispute in my area.

You mean in nazi Seattle?

Sales tax is what hurts the most. I bought a 1 ton dually and camper so I paid $7800 in sales taxes. I know the Europeans will think that is nothing.

Oh, and that reminds me, I have to go pay my annual fee this week, to the same Department of Licensing... for my PE license.

I have never felt the need to get a PE license. I have been hired by PhDs and PEs to do consulting, sizing, programming and commissioning. Renewing a license does not renew your skills.

About the title. What losses? There will be a time when selling short will pay off. BTW, it is safer to buy puts or sell in the money covered calls.

Szumi · Jan 1, 2020

I drive 70 miles a day minimum in northern michigan. My quick calculation is that to drive an EV and charge at home my electric consumption would be increased 7x.

Magic wand waved, we all have EV's. Will the consumer grid support charging in its current state? Will it do it when we have a summer heat wave?

Phrog30 · Jan 1, 2020

Peter Nachtwey said:
No we don't. Our gas tax is 49.4 cents per gallon which is about the national average. The fed's portion of that is 18.4 cents per gallon.

Pretty sure he meant compared to other countries...

rupej · Jan 1, 2020

Szumi said:
Magic wand waved, we all have EV's. Will the consumer grid support charging in its current state? Will it do it when we have a summer heat wave?

If you can wave a wand to suddenly put everyone in an EV, then you can wave a wand to suddenly build the infrastructure to support it.

Of course there isn't enough generation to support that right now, but luckily the transition to everyone having EVs will take decades, which will give the utilities time to prepare. And most charging will be at evening/night when grid demands are lowest (either because thats when people get home and charge or because they will incentivise it).

harryting · Jan 2, 2020

Ken Roach said:
I plan to get some good data about charger use from that system. But as a large residential power user without independent metering, we don't get the time-of-day tariff benefits that a single-family metered user might.

That's not going to happen for a while. Requires the latest smart meter and also requires a lot of backend IT work but I suspect it will be in play in the coming decade.

I plan to put a dryer outlet in the garage and just buy a portable charger.

Look for more charging stations soon.

harryting · Jan 2, 2020

rupej said:
Of course there isn't enough generation to support that right now, but luckily the transition to everyone having EVs will take decades, which will give the utilities time to prepare. And most charging will be at evening/night when grid demands are lowest (either because thats when people get home and charge or because they will incentivise it).

We have more than enough generation. Transmission and distribution is more of an issue. It's no more than running a electric cloth dryer but the system isn't designed for everyone to charge at once just like it can't handle everyone running dryers at once.

Smart meters will allow for demand pricing to allow people to charge at night or during high-wind for lower price in the future but there's a lot of work to be done before that can happen.

busarider29 · Jan 2, 2020

Steve Bailey said:
Has anyone given any thought to how EVs are going to pay their share of the cost of maintaining the transportation infrastructure? Currently it is funded by per-gallon taxes on gasoline and diesel. And currently EVs are an insignificant fraction of the total number of vehicle-miles. But what happens as EVs displace more and more ICEs to become a significant fraction?

Doesn't seem like much of a hurdle to me. The powers that may be will figure that one out. Higher taxes and/or cost of registration for starters.

Been down this road before. All the EV naysayers out there cherry picking the drawbacks of EVs. For every one (1) cherry picked drawback one can come up with against EVs, I'll have 10 cherry picked drawbacks on ICEs. You can't and won't win.

I just can hardly wait to get my new Cybertruck in a couple years! It's gonna be friggin' awesome!

JaxGTO · Jan 2, 2020

I leased a Model S for 3 years and loved it so much we bought a used one after the lease ran out. I will always drive a Tesla. And this is from an old muscle car guy who has two GTOs, but I have always been a big electronics hobbyist as well.

I bought TSLA when it was $24/share. Wish Id bought more back then.

BachPhi · Jan 3, 2020

Congrat. to JaxGTO for purchasing TSLA@ $24.

I am surprised how this thread becoming so popular.

If you read back my original post, I indicated that a non-LIDAR, vision base system may not be sufficient in trying to automate the full self-driving system.

And since many of us here are control engineers who have dabbed in vision system and would give some inside thoughts about its prospect and merits.

In the last few days, there were 3 crashes with 3 deaths which may related to the self-driving system.

alive15 · Jan 3, 2020

Imagine wireless car battery charging, that would be excellent, but someone would steal the charger!!!

There is difficulty with charging the EV, especially for those without garages, no?

I think Hybrids are the best option, so you have the best of both worlds. In case you don't have time to charge, use gas. But when you have time to charge, use battery. At least this will cut air pollution from cars by a really good amount.

Or maybe, figure out a way for the EV car to charge while it is driving? So it's always self-charging on the road.

rupej · Jan 3, 2020

alive15 said:
Or maybe, figure out a way for the EV car to charge while it is driving? So it's always self-charging on the road.

That's what traditional, non-plugin hybrids do.

Short sellers - Cut your losses before the year end

LadderLogic

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Toine

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Aabeck

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Ken Roach

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Peter Nachtwey

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Szumi

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Phrog30

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rupej

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harryting

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harryting

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busarider29

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JaxGTO

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alive15

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rupej

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