OT: Coronavirus do you care?

For people saying "The flu is worse than the corona virus". That's just not true. The total deaths are higher because millions have been infected with the flu. and the flu will slow down with warmer weather. But from a mortality rate viewpoint corona is much much worse...
The seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% (WHO) ....Corona virus has a mortality rate of 3.4% ( WHO. The mortality rate is 34 times that of the Flu !!
if it spreads like the Flu or worse, the warmer weather speeds it up (due partly to travel) rather than slowing it down like the flu, the overall death numbers from corona virus could be devastating...That's why people are so concerned !!
We shouldn't panic, but we damn well better take this seriously

DemocracyNow
CovidLive

kalabdel said:

DemocracyNow
CovidLive

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Smart kid.. hope he's making a few bucks off his good work

One question, how is Hong Kong doing so good? they have so many people crammed in such a small area and they are as close as you can get to Mainland China, they had to close their borders.

Can anyone point to any valid statistical data that would support the statements that Angela Merkel and Boris Johnson have made; namely that 60%-80% of their respective populations will be infected by the coronavirus?

I have been keeping an eye on this website recently:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Peter Nachtwey will like this site because they are showing the mortality rate the way he has been promoting.

I was scheduled to travel to the UK on Monday (this has been canceled) and I wanted to keep an eye on world conditions. For what I state after this I am using numbers from China, which is the most stable country right now that was very highly infected. Their infection rate the site is publishing right now is 56/million citizens, or 0.056% of the population. You may make the case that not all cases are being reported. Using the current WHO estimate that about 80% of cases are mild to moderate and those with this level of involvement won't seek medical attention, we will multiply the case count per million by 8. That gets us to 0.448%. China's current new case count has been hovering around 10-30/day for a while now, which is an additional infection rate of 0.000003%/day (assuming 1000000000 Chinese citizens). At that rate they won't hit 60% of their population in my natural lifetime.

But, you say, look at Italy. Their case count per million is currently 6 times that of China and is still growing. OK, lets assume the perceived case count per million (assuming the 80% "no-treatment" rate holds) for Italy. We will further assume that the infection rate will end up at 20 times that of China since it is already 6 times greater and doesn't appear to have turned the corner in terms of control. That is still only an infection rate of 9%. While certainly very serious, this is nowhere near 60%.

I am not saying that this is not a serious situation. However, just like some are grossly underestimating the effects of this disease, others seem to be blowing it all out of reasonable statistical proportion.

Keith

I find it all but impossible to quit touching my face in various areas; eyes, nose, mouth etc. I was not aware of how often I do it until I started trying not to.


I need one of these:

First let me repeat, while there are a lot of good and about 1000 times as many bad places to get information about SARS CoV2 and Covid 19, the best locations are WHO (World Health Organisation), the CDC and you local State and County health departments. I personally wouldn't trust any other source with a few minor exceptions (Johns Hopkin for example but they get their info from the CDC). Even with the best of intentions, it's to easy to get something wrong or lose it in translation so why add the layer, get if from the source.

As to Italy, apparently the SARS Cov2 Virus landed there during the peak of their flu season so many people did not recognize they potentially had something other than the flu and health officials didn't recognize it either until it was well entrenched. To be upfront, this info is coming from a news source however it's an interview of a public health official in Italy and by a news source that I normally trust very much, but, as I stated, it is from a news source so even I am a little skeptical (for as much as it matters).

My own personal spin on the situation is Italy is that it is a very dense population and its very common to find several generations living in one very small home. And, these small homes are packed tightly together. Kinda a perfect breeding ground for something like SARS.

I also thought 10 days ago that this disease was not so serious, but here in Europe the situation has changed radically for the worse in recent days.

And that change of situation will probably come to America as well

lfe said:

I also thought 10 days ago that this disease was not so serious, but here in Europe the situation has changed radically for the worse in recent days.

And that change of situation will probably come to America as well

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It was serious months ago and everyone was lying to you. The WHO FINALLY calls this a pandemic. Idiots.


The only thing the governments can do now is slow the spread down so the medical systems don't get overwhelmed and there is time to find a vaccine.

Peter Nachtwey said:

It was serious months ago and everyone was lying to you. The WHO FINALLY calls this a pandemic. Idiots.


The only thing the governments can do now is slow the spread down so the medical systems don't get overwhelmed and there is time to find a vaccine.

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I'm not sure why the WHO are idiots because they have now classified Covid 19 as pandemic. Prior to the 11th (of March) it didn't meet the requirements to be classified as a Pandemic Outbreak. Now it has been confirmed in enough regions to meet the classification to they changed it from an International Health Emergency to a Pandemic Outbreak (there are other factors that I won't go into but look it up on the WHO's website and the CDC's website).

Also, who was lying? The WHO, CDC and at least Washington States Health department (and I'm guessing most other State's Health Dempartments) have all been saying since it was identified in January that it was a serious health risk.

geniusintraining said:

One question, how is Hong Kong doing so good? they have so many people crammed in such a small area and they are as close as you can get to Mainland China, they had to close their borders.

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Hong Kong started early with restrictions on travel and congregating in groups, which WHO credits with their comparative success.

Firejo said:

I'm not sure why the WHO are idiots because they have now classified Covid 19 as pandemic. Prior to the 11th (of March) it didn't meet the requirements to be classified as a Pandemic Outbreak.

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Spoken like a bureaucrat. Have you looked up the definition of a pandemic? That criteria was met long ago. They just won't admit it or they didn't know how far it had spread undetected.

Even so, what difference does it make when the WHO advised against travel restrictions without know how bad this new virus is.

Also, who was lying? The WHO, CDC and at least Washington States Health department (and I'm guessing most other State's Health Dempartments) have all been saying since it was identified in January that it was a serious health risk.

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All of them. They should at least said we don't know and this virus is not under control. I blame the WHO the most. The others were just repeating what the WHO said without questioning. The same goes for the media.


Now the 6 degree of separation movie becomes significant.

Found this

Think it's more relevant

Sound of silence parody

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdWMEe6sLDY

i do care but I'm not paranoic

Do you think the Italians bought up all the toilet paper like we did?
WTF are we doing?