Short sellers - Cut your losses before the year end

janner_10 said:

This the major hurdle right now. Cars need to be at least in 500 plus miles range to even consider.

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The 5 minute 'quick charge' will be the answer. If you can dump say 60-75% of the capacity back into the vehicle in 5 minutes, then life is good.

Maxkling said:

Where’s the data? Need facts.

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Jon Musk said:

Nissan battery degraded much quicker than Tesla and that is a fact. Some model S lost only 6% after 5 year as was measured by owners. They typically lose around 10% over the 160K miles

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Yes, I'm well aware of the Leaf battery issue (there are tons of videos and discussion online). While I haven't committed to getting one yet, here are my reasoning (cough):

- Used Leaf are very very cheap (yes, for a reason).
- I don't need long ranges. Most of my driving including commute is less than 20 miles round-trip.
- I do make regular trips to work-sites, but most of the time I'm able to use company vehicles.
- The consensus is to avoid a Leaf from hot area. I'm in a mild climate but I do have to check Car-Fax.
- There are a good possibility of 3rd party players that will provide battery replacement (Fenix Power maybe one).

Oh, did I mention used Leaf are cheap? Quite a few 2016 model are less than $10k around where I am. I'm not even looking to make out financially, break-even would be nice, to get me a chance to try a electric car for a few years until that "inflection point" gets there.

Aabeck said:

...All the technology and thought being put into electric cars will benefit others in the future, but I think long after Tesla is gone.

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I agree with AABeck - but as also has been stated Musk is making batteries and history showed us that the folks who consistently did better during the Gold Rush were not the ones doing the digging ... but were the ones selling the shovels.

Gene Bond said:

The 5 minute 'quick charge' will be the answer. If you can dump say 60-75% of the capacity back into the vehicle in 5 minutes, then life is good.

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It's my understanding that currently at a supercharger, you can get 200 miles of capacity in 20 minutes of charging for 6 dollars. I do not own a Tesla, but I have a close friend that does.

boardmaker said:

It's my understanding that currently at a supercharger, you can get 200 miles of capacity in 20 minutes of charging for 6 dollars. I do not own a Tesla, but I have a close friend that does.

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Stopping at a gas station every 200 miles for 20 minutes would be unacceptable to any driver travelling anywhere. Inner city driving would be OK, as 200 miles in a day would be a lot of miles.

Most cars are designed for about a 300 mile range per tank, and can be filled in under 5 minutes. When the electrics get near this they will be more openly accepted by the public.

Aabeck said:

Stopping at a gas station every 200 miles for 20 minutes would be unacceptable to any driver travelling anywhere...

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Really, not one single driver would find this acceptable?

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree, many drivers find this a reasonable sacrifice, otherwise, people wouldn't be buying electric cars. I'd bet that in reality, the typical gas station stop is more than 5 minutes, especially on road trips.

My car has a 310 mile range, though of course, we don't run it down to 10 miles. We recently took a trip from Vancouver WA to Whistler BC, it was ~400 miles one way. We started with ~200 miles of charge. Stopped in Centralia WA for 15 minutes. Then in Burlington WA for 25 minutes, where we ate lunch. That got us to Whistler.

I understand that it's not for everyone, but it works just fine for a lot of people. I think the inconvenience is a little exaggerated, though I acknowledge some inconvenience does exist. It's an adjustment, not that hard to make.

I'll take the extra time spent on the occasional road trip in exchange for the 5-10 minutes no longer wasted at the gas station every week.

dmroeder said:

Really, not one single driver would find this acceptable?

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Maybe that wasn't his best choice of words. But, my guess is the majority would think this way. I have nothing to back that up with, just a guess.

Phrog30 said:

Maybe that wasn't his best choice of words. But, my guess is the majority would think this way. I have nothing to back that up with, just a guess.

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Fair point, probably true. I suppose anecdotes won't change the perception. Most of the questions I get asked are regarding long distance trips, which backs up your hunch, at least in my microcosm. I typically point out what I was getting at before, the time spent at super chargers a few times a year is more than offset by never spending time at a gas station.

Aabeck said:

Stopping at a gas station every 200 miles for 20 minutes would be unacceptable to any driver travelling anywhere. Inner city driving would be OK, as 200 miles in a day would be a lot of miles.

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You are wrong. Plenty of places around the world would be unthinkable to actually drive 200 miles and instead a flight or a train would be preferable (for reference, you can cross my country east to west with 200 miles and just about drive half of it north to south). Driving that distance at 70mph is almost 3 hours. Most people on the planet will stop for a drink, toilet break and quite likely a snack or so in each stop.

5 minutes to fill up the tank assumes the station has automated payments (which most electric chargers do) and you're not going to be stuck in line waiting to pay for gas while most of the people in front of you are paying for food or other items.

Cardosocea,

In the US there is not the mass transit systems in place almost every other country has. This is the 'home' of the automobile (ignoring the fact that Henry Ford actually stole Benz's car when he "invented" one)

Flying from Detroit to Chicago takes longer than driving the over 400 miles/645Km, and hoping a train is scheduled to get where you want to go is a craps shoot. Even inner-city commuting most people want their own car in the parking lot so they (think) they have the freedom to leave whenever they want. And, every fuel pump in Michigan and Chicago has a credit card reader on it - I have not seen ONE older style pump in at least 5 years in the US.

dmroeder,

Maybe ALL drivers was not correct, but whenever anyone compares vehicle specs it is always for long distance travelling. I have never heard anyone bragging about their car running for 3-5 weeks on a single fill-up because they drive 4 miles to work and the grocery store is 1/2 mile from their house - always how far they can get on one tank.

Aabeck said:

ignoring the fact that Henry Ford actually stole Benz's car when he "invented" one

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I did not realize Henry Ford had ever claimed that he invented automobile. I mean, he was a real piece of work to say the least but I don't think he had gone that far?

There is a Henry Ford museum near Detroit that every schoolkid goes to on field trips and for years we were told that Henry Ford invented the automobile, and that he invented the assembly line.

He saw an assembly line in a jewelry factory in England and stole that idea too.

If he started today, he would be considered a pirate and "Intellectual Property Thief" and be in court every day of his life.

PS - kids now are taught that Henry Ford was an "Innovator" using ideas he improved upon.

It seems if you're an Aussie Truck driver, you need to take four 15min breaks in an 11hr shift. So that's 2hrs of driving, 15min break, repeat. This helps to ensure alert drivers, and safer drivers. From this, I propose that taking a 20min break every 200miles is not only feasible but crucial to ensure alertness, for any solo driver. Yes, if you alternate drivers you could get there faster on a longer distance tank, while still giving enough rest to the each driver, but I don't see "I won't buy this low emissions vehicle because when me and a mate drive we have to stop and refresh, rather than just switching drivers."

Side note: If you don't have rules in place for your employees or coworkers about taking a 15 minute break every 2h15m, to quote an Australian road safety campaign, "you're a bloody idiot." A car is the most dangerous machine in your organisation.

I realize that in the US for example, you only need one half-hour break in an 11hr driving stint, and even that has had some organizations try to remove it.

cardosocea said:

You are wrong. Plenty of places around the world would be unthinkable to actually drive 200 miles and instead a flight or a train would be preferable (for reference, you can cross my country east to west with 200 miles and just about drive half of it north to south). Driving that distance at 70mph is almost 3 hours. Most people on the planet will stop for a drink, toilet break and quite likely a snack or so in each stop.

5 minutes to fill up the tank assumes the station has automated payments (which most electric chargers do) and you're not going to be stuck in line waiting to pay for gas while most of the people in front of you are paying for food or other items.

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I wish that was how the states were, or at least public transport like a bullet train.

I use to travel 8+ hours when going to uni, and I didn't even leave the state. The majority was interstate at 75mph (now 80) and then the rest highway at 65mph. Buses might run the route but I think that was closer to a 12 hour trip if it exists.

edit - just checked the bus schedule and I guess for $140 you can take a 20+ hour bus ride.

edit 2 - BUT, their isn't a return way by bus... but free wifi.

VAN said:

I wish that was how the states were, or at least public transport like a bullet train.

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It’s hard to realize how big and unorganized the US is. Texas is 2 twice the size of Germany, Michigan is bigger than the UK.