It says "Adapted from CDC / The Economist". Do you have a link ?
jimtech67 said:https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6
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If no measures are implemented, the epidemic will only decline when the entire world population has been infected and have attained immunity the natural way. Maybe this will be shorter than the second scenario, but at what cost ?
HIT for a disease with an R0 of 2 is theoretically only 50%
To add to what Firejo said, the goal now should be to keep the curve under the healthcare system capacity line in the attached graph. The Italians are currently failing to do this, and their system is crashing. Not enough ICU beds, respirators, and other essential equipment. Significant numbers of hospital workers are getting sick, and those that remain are at the breaking point. We need to flatten our curve or we're in for big trouble.
edit: I did write that when the entire world has attained immunity. I meant the same that you wrote.This is not true, only in rare cases the person who was infected with the virus and recovered does not get immunity against the disease. So we can at the moment approximate, that if u got it and survived, u got the immunity.
You dont find 80% pretty severe, if we consider the entire world poulation ?For virus to stop finding new hosts, not everybody, even near everybody must have immunity. For Influenza the HIT (herd immunity threshold) is under 45%, for SARS its 50-80% according to wiki.
The reproduction rate of Covid-19 is around 3.0Somewhere I read that Covid infects ~2 more per infected and according to wiki (R0 is the number of new infected per one infected):
edit: I did write that when the entire world has attained immunity. I meant the same that you wrote.
You dont find 80% pretty severe, if we consider the entire world poulation ?
And Covid-19 is more infective than SARS. See below.
The reproduction rate of Covid-19 is around 3.0
This is my source:
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
edit: Sorry, bad link. Should work now.
your source says 2-3
But yes 80% is pretty bad. Also as I said, slowing measures should be done.
Im not sure if covid19 is more infective than SARS per se, the bigger problem is very long incubation time and ability to spread few days before symptoms. Its very hard to control when one cant know he is transferring it already.
Faster the disease makes one sick, faster he is going to be limiting himself.