OT: Coronavirus do you care?

[kamenges]

Originally posted by geniusintraining:

You need to give them time, ...

Agreed. You wouldn't expect to see many recovered right now since the expected recovery time is about the same as the time since our first recorded infection. Serious or not, the metric for recovery will be fairly strict; intended to prevent further infections.

Originally posted by Peter Nachtwey:

China has reported a lot of recovered. I don't believe it.

So who are you going to believe? We have to use a country that has a fairly stable, small-ish infection rate. Kind of a small sample group. You good with South Korea? Their infection rate has largely flat-lined. Their current mortality rate using only the recovered or dead is about 5%. Only 1% of their current cases are critical. This is the group you would expect future deaths to come out of. They have four times more active cases than closed cases. You would expect their mortality will drop pretty significantly as time goes on.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

As you said, Peter, on the worldwide level we are on the front edge of the mortality rate calculation. Those with a weakened immune system will tend to die before the survivors will be declared recovered. That tends to skew the percentages in the early portion of reporting. Again, look at the South Korean graphs of percentage of recovered to percentage dead. For a while they were hovering around 50/50, just like the US is. Not so much anymore.

Keith

 

[NetNathan]

The infection rate worldwide is running around 15,000 a day.

 

[Maxkling]

I would assume that most of the recovered have to “time out” before they are added to the count. Pretty much they test positive but we didn’t hear that they died two weeks later so mark them as recovered.

 

[Peter Nachtwey]

So who are you going to believe? We have to use a country that has a fairly stable, small-ish infection rate. Kind of a small sample group. You good with South Korea?

Yes, but also Italy. However, the percentages are extremely different.

I think the difference is due to the country's leaders and the discipline of its people. Italy does have a relatively old population.


What worries me is that I am 66. I could have retired years ago but owning a company is like holding a snake by the tail. Can't let go or you get bit.

 

[kamenges]

I don't think we can use Italy yet statistically. It looks like their infection rate MIGHT be slowing but they are far from stable. But you are correct. They will end up way worse than the global average, much less South Korea, by the time this is all over.

Originally posted by Peter Nachtwey:

What worries me is that I am 66.

Understood. My personal position all along is that I'm not concerned about myself or my immediate family. I'm worried about my dad and mother-in-law. Stay safe, Peter.

On a side note, I'm pretty interested in how things turn out in the Netherlands. It looks like they are taking a path that many will consider irresponsible. But if it actually works...

Keith

 

[harryting]

I posted about the lack of reaction and the coming economic downturn during the first week of February. this was in a small financial forum that I frequented for years and got zero reply. Didn't pique anyone's interest even though I am a known member there.

I read a lot of East Asian news so does a lot of immigrants here. For example, the Ranch 99 store I went to in late January (Lunar New Year) already requires their checkout clerk to wear mask and glove, this is in a store near Seattle.

What I did miss, in retrospect is how unprepared we are. I thought we could be at least as efficient as Hong Kong or Taiwan (where my brother works out of) but we turned out to be more like Italy. Taiwan's school is still running and their market full. Test is on demand and free. Their health care system (one payer) never got overwhelmed (yet) However, they just started to require all foreign arrivals, including from the US, to self-quarantine for 14 days. Their law require pilot like himself to not leave their hotel room when flying overseas. So I'm not even sure I can see him next week when he's on a layover. It's a scary high $ fine if you don't so most people will abide. Here's a short story about how Taiwan is handling it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/what-taiwan-can-teach-world-fighting-coronavirus-n1153826

 

[geniusintraining]

...in retrospect is how unprepared we are.

And still we have people jamming beaches and bars like there is nothing to worry about, very selfish if you ask me

Perfect example of how unprepared we are... nobody thought we would need this until now?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/cor...-ship-wont-be-ready-to-help-ny-for-weeks.html

 

[TurpoUrpo]

Yes, but also Italy. However, the percentages are extremely different.

I think the difference is due to the country's leaders and the discipline of its people. Italy does have a relatively old population.


What worries me is that I am 66. I could have retired years ago but owning a company is like holding a snake by the tail. Can't let go or you get bit.

In Italy almost all the dead have had other diseases under. Also Italian culture is very "close", large family gatherings and lot of touching and staying very close by each other, even when people don't know each other. So the virus had very good opportunity to spread fast and far. That also means a lot of infected are elderly and such die "fast" compared to recovering cases.

Also not testing everybody anymore will push the death rate lot higher than it really is.

In most European countries they only test risk group or hard symptoms, other ones are just told to stay home.

Not testing is a problem in social democratic systems where people don't save for "bad day" as "government will handle it" and because they might not get a diagnose, but should stay home, they might not get sick pay at all and the company wont get their money from the government.

 

[Elcan]

You need to give them time, when I started this thread it was March 5th and only a hand full of people had it in the US now 13 days later 7,300 confirmed 107 deaths and 8 recovered

https://ncov2019.live/data

Its some serious **** and takes a couple weeks to recover.

It seems that the website you posted doesn't have up to date info.
The website I like/trust is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[geniusintraining]

It seems that the website you posted doesn't have up to date info.

They look almost identical....

 

[Aabeck]

So, the current death rate is just under 10.5%

Coincidence the poster I posted last week says the virus was created to reduce the population by 11.5%?

Some bio-scientist group is patting themselves on the back and sipping ****tails right now.

 

[Elcan]

They look almost identical....

There is missing info in the map (nothing posted for many countries in Central and South America).
The separate list for Latin America doesn't include all the countries.
The info for North Carolina is outdated, just to mention one state.

Not trying to make an argument about this, please don't take me wrong!

 

[harryting]

So, the current death rate is just under 10.5%

Coincidence the poster I posted last week says the virus was created to reduce the population by 11.5%?

Some bio-scientist group is patting themselves on the back and sipping ****tails right now.

I know it's meant to be lighthearted, still, history has shown there can be real world consequence to even the most ridiculed conspiracy theories.

 

[rankhornjp]

Imperial College report estimates that it could be 18 months before a viable vaccine is available and that suppression protocols should be implemented until then.

Suppression protocols = what we are doing now; social distancing/isolation, no schools, no groups larger than 10, etc.

 

[Aabeck]

I know it's meant to be lighthearted,...

I really and truly believe this virus was created in a lab.

Either a test was done in China, or the lab had a "ventilation release"